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Home prices in the Old Fourth Ward have gone up 339% since 2011, according to my recent study of FMLS sales data.  339%.

That’s not a typo folks, just some serious price appreciation. The Atlanta housing market has changed dramatically since 2011, the year that most housing economists point to as the bottom of the housing crash, and there is no better example of this than the Old Fourth Ward.  Of course, there are local factors at play here as well: the opening of the Atlanta BeltLine’s Eastside Trail, Old Fourth Ward Park, Ponce City Market and Krog Street Market are likely the most well known symbols for what will likely end up being over a billion dollars of public and private investment in the neighborhood.


Looking at home sales in the area, it translates something like this:

Old Fourth Ward Single Family Home Sales

2011 2016
Average Sales Price $164,581 $558,410 339%
Average Days On Market 88 48 -55%
Average Price Per SF $97 $256 264%
Total Number of Sales 26 45 173%

Pretty insane, right? A few other interesting nuggets:

  • In 2011, 65% of the sales (17 of the 26 sales) were foreclosures or short sales.  In 2016, there were no foreclosure or short sales.
  • In 2011, 58% of the sales (15 out of 26 sales) closed under $150,000.   In 2016, there were no sales under $250,000.
  • The lowest sales price in 2011 was $31,500.  The lowest sales price in 2016 was $250,000.
  • The highest sales price in 2011 was $427,500.  The highest sales price in 2016 was $915,000.

What are the conclusions that we can draw from the growth we’ve seen in the Old Fourth Ward, and what can we expect to see in the coming years?  A few thoughts:

  • If you bought in 2011, bravo.  In real estate, timing is everything, and you timed this market perfectly.  Even better if you are an owner occupant, and you’ve gotten to enjoy the spoils of your purchase.
  • If you bought in 2016, bravo.  You get to live in a dynamic neighborhood, with fantastic neighbors and unparalleled neighborhood amenities.  It is unlikely that you think you got a “steal” on your house, but you should be pleased with where you hang your spurs.
  • If you’re thinking about buying in 2017, please do not expect to see your home value go up by 337% by the year 2022.  The growth we’ve seen in home prices is, frankly, unsustainable.  The real estate crash that began in 2007 was historic (in a bad way!)… as was the recovery (in a good way!).  There is sufficient reason to believe that prices will continue to climb, but not in the way that we’ve been accustomed to seeing them rise.  Buy, hold and enjoy.  Contact us to schedule a Home Buying Consultation, and we’ll help you find the perfect Old Fourth Ward home.
  • If you’re thinking about selling in 2017, let’s think this through.  All properties are not created equally, especially in unique in-town neighborhoods like the Old Fourth Ward.  Clearly, proximity to certain amenities is a big bonus, while proximity to certain “hot spots” might be viewed as a negative by many buyers.  The key to a successful, profitable share is pricing, and if you don’t nail it out of the gate, it becomes increasingly difficult to maximize return.  Contact us to schedule a Home Selling Consultation, and we’ll help you sell your Old Fourth Ward home for the highest price possible, as fast as possible, with as little hassle as possible.

And lastly, if anyone tells you that they know of the next neighborhood that will appreciate by 339% in the next five years, run.